Holiday hype meets long-term reality
Every year, the same question echoes across ecommerce teams: How deep should we discount this Black Friday?
This year, the savviest subscription brands are asking something different: how can we make BFCM fuel lifetime value, not just a weekend spike?
During our recent webinar, The Subscription Guide to Winning BFCM, three of the brightest minds in retention—Thomas Keller of Oats Overnight, Daniel Nunn of Carpe, and Kendall Singer Cook of Arrae —joined Andriy Rudnyk to unpack how they’re navigating this season differently.
Their takeaway? The most profitable brands this BFCM won’t win with deeper discounts, they’ll win with deeper relationships.
1. Resist the discount reflex
For many brands, BFCM feels like an annual test of nerve. But Thomas Keller, Director of Ecommerce at Oats Overnight, believes the better move is restraint.
“As a general company philosophy, we offer a large discount for first time subscription, and we really try to not offer other discounts. We do offer a discount for recurring subscription, but it’s like a pretty modest discount, really. And we want to make it enticing to subscribe any day.”
Thomas Keller, Oats Overnight
Oats Overnight focuses instead on making every day the best day to subscribe. Their offer is always clear: flexible, zero-risk, and built for daily use. That consistent value proposition attracts loyal customers year-round, not just when prices drop.
For brands in similar categories—everyday essentials, wellness, food & bev—discounting can be a trap. A steady, trustworthy offer paired with transparent messaging about ongoing subscriber benefits often outperforms the rush of flash sales, building a loyal base of recurring customers.
Make subscription your default buying experience on product pages, communicate savings clearly, and let your customer portal reinforce that subscribing is the smarter way to shop.
2. Reward loyalty before chasing new signups
While most teams scramble to acquire new subscribers in November, Kendall Singer Cook, Product Manager at Arrae, argues that the biggest win may be protecting the ones you already have.
Last year, Arrae noticed loyal subscribers canceling just to rejoin under stronger BFCM promotions. The fix was surprisingly simple: reward loyalty.
“We offer [current subscribers] additional credits if they continue to purchase and continue to stay with us. Just fully trying to remind them that, like, the more you invest in us, the more we’ll invest in you, and you don’t have to gamify the system.”
Kendall Singer Cook, Arrae
The lesson? Retention is acquisition—especially during the holidays. Communicate early with your subscribers, highlight their exclusive benefits in email and SMS, and remind them that being a long-term customer pays off. Even small gestures, like bonus credits or early access to promotions, make subscribers feel seen.
3. Know your customer cohorts and accept their differences
Not every customer you acquire during BFCM will look like your evergreen subscriber. Winning brands treat these customers differently by design.
That means using cohort analysis to monitor how these subscribers behave over time, anticipating slightly higher churn, and preparing retention strategies accordingly. For Arrae, this includes additional credits, personalized cancellation flows, and pre-renewal communication to reinforce ongoing value.
Daniel Nunn, Head of Ecommerce at Carpe, takes a similar approach.
“We make it our goal to segment out these BFCM customers. In the portal, if someone normally gets a 20% discount on the next order, a Black Friday customer might get 30% for life. So just be aware of the fact that these customers are value oriented, so you’re gonna need to meet them in the middle.”
Daniel Nunn, Carpe
By segmenting BFCM subscribers and adapting communication to match their motivations, Carpe turns value-seekers into loyalists—proof that with the right structure, even deal hunters can become high-LTV customers.
4. Redefine success beyond the weekend
If there’s a single theme uniting these perspectives, it’s patience.
These customers aren’t necessarily less sticky. They’re just really value oriented. And so, like Kendall said, we’re giving them credits. We’re giving them extra lifetime discounts. Just trying to keep them in it for the long term with that value.”
Daniel Nunn, Carpe
For these brands, success isn’t measured by weekend revenue, it’s measured by how many subscribers remain as time goes on.
Whether it’s a disciplined ad strategy, leveraging loyalty credits, or cohort-based retention offers, the most successful brands are optimizing for profitability and LTV over promotional volume.
And for subscription businesses, that’s the difference between chasing a sale and building a brand.
The bottom line
This BFCM, sustainable growth will come from focus, not frenzy.
- Resist deep discounts that attract one-time bargain hunters.
- Reinforce loyalty with meaningful subscriber rewards.
- Treat BFCM customers as their own cohort with unique retention needs.
- Measure success in retention curves, not revenue spikes.
This season will test every brand’s discipline, but the ones who prioritize lifetime value over last-minute sales will come out stronger, steadier, and far more profitable.
To explore the tactics behind these insights—from loyalty credits to cohort analysis—tune in to the full webinar replay of The Subscription Guide to Winning BFCM.
